Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control.

TitleRecasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2014
AuthorsSmith DL, T Perkins A, Reiner RC, Barker CM, Niu T, Chaves LFernando, Ellis AM, George DB, Le Menach A, Pulliam JRC, Bisanzio D, Buckee C, Chiyaka C, Cummings DAT, Garcia AJ, Gatton ML, Gething PW, Hartley DM, Johnston G, Klein EY, Michael E, Lloyd AL, Pigott DM, Reisen WK, Ruktanonchai N, Singh BK, Stoller J, Tatem AJ, Kitron U, H Godfray CJ, Cohen JM, Hay SI, Scott TW
JournalTrans R Soc Trop Med Hyg
Date Published2014 Apr
KeywordsAnimals, Culicidae, Humans, Insect Vectors, Models, Biological, Models, Theoretical, Parasitic Diseases

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald's formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are now used to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross-Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context for mosquito blood feeding, the movement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

Alternate JournalTrans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg.
PubMed ID24591453
PubMed Central IDPMC3952634
Grant List095066 / / Wellcome Trust / United Kingdom
095066 / / Wellcome Trust / United Kingdom
5 U01 EH000418 / EH / NCEH CDC HHS / United States
DP1OD003874 / OD / NIH HHS / United States
K00669X / / Medical Research Council / United Kingdom
R01 AI069387-01A1 / AI / NIAID NIH HHS / United States
R01-AI069341 / AI / NIAID NIH HHS / United States
R01-AI091980 / AI / NIAID NIH HHS / United States
R01-GM08322 / GM / NIGMS NIH HHS / United States
U01GM070708 / GM / NIGMS NIH HHS / United States
U19 AI089674 / AI / NIAID NIH HHS / United States
U19AI089674 / AI / NIAID NIH HHS / United States
U54 GM088491 / GM / NIGMS NIH HHS / United States
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