Multiple contributory factors to the age distribution of disease cases: a modeling study in the context of influenza A(H3N2v).

TitleMultiple contributory factors to the age distribution of disease cases: a modeling study in the context of influenza A(H3N2v).
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsGambhir M, Swerdlow DL, Finelli L, Van Kerkhove MD, Biggerstaff M, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM
JournalClin Infect Dis
Volume57 Suppl 1
PaginationS23-7
Date Published2013 Jul
ISSN1537-6591
KeywordsAdolescent, Adult, Age Distribution, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Animals, Child, Child, Preschool, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Infant, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype, Influenza, Human, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Orthomyxoviridae Infections, Swine, Swine Diseases, United States, Young Adult
Abstract

BACKGROUND: In late 2011 and early 2012, 13 cases of human influenza resulted from infection with a novel triple reassortant swine-origin influenza virus, influenza A (H3N2) variant. This variant was notable for its inclusion of the matrix gene from the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic virus. While most of these confirmed cases were among children, the transmission potential and likely age-dependent susceptibility to the virus was unknown. Preliminary serologic studies indicated that very young children have less protection than older children and adults.METHODS: We construct a mathematical transmission model of influenza transmission that allows for external zoonotic exposure to infection and show how exposure and susceptibility-related factors contribute to the observed case distribution.RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Age-dependent susceptibility to infection strongly influences epidemic dynamics. The result is that the risk of an outbreak in a highly susceptible age group may be substantially higher than in an older age group with less susceptibility, but exposure-related factors must also be accounted for when interpreting case data.

DOI10.1093/cid/cit298
Alternate JournalClin. Infect. Dis.
PubMed ID23794728
PubMed Central IDPMC3689451
Grant ListU54 GM088491 / GM / NIGMS NIH HHS / United States
/ / Medical Research Council / United Kingdom
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