University of California, San Francisco

Mathematical models will be developed for disease control through contact investigation, using individual- based simulations and differential equation models. Realistic contact investigation strategies will be analyzed for pathogens that may be transmissible from asymptomatic carriers as well as prior to symptoms, and it will be determined how extensive or targeted contact investigation should be, and what information is worth collecting for effective decision-making. Such models will be applied to three specific settings in HIV, tuberculosis and trachoma - specific testable predictions will be produced. Models will be examined for the effect of risk behavior changes on contact investigation, and more broadly in a dynamic contact network where individuals influence the behavior of their contacts. 

Principal Investigator: Travis C. Porco, Ph.D., M.P.H.