The role of subway travel in an influenza epidemic: a New York City simulation.

TitleThe role of subway travel in an influenza epidemic: a New York City simulation.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2011
AuthorsCooley P, Brown S, Cajka J, Chasteen B, Ganapathi L, Grefenstette J, Hollingsworth CR, Lee BY, Levine B, Wheaton WD, Wagener DK
JournalJ Urban Health
Volume88
Issue5
Pagination982-95
Date Published2011 Oct
ISSN1468-2869
KeywordsAdolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Computer Simulation, Disease Transmission, Infectious, Humans, Infant, Influenza, Human, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, New York City, Railroads, Young Adult
Abstract

The interactions of people using public transportation in large metropolitan areas may help spread an influenza epidemic. An agent-based model computer simulation of New York City's (NYC's) five boroughs was developed that incorporated subway ridership into a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered disease model framework. The model contains a total of 7,847,465 virtual people. Each person resides in one of the five boroughs of NYC and has a set of socio-demographic characteristics and daily behaviors that include age, sex, employment status, income, occupation, and household location and membership. The model simulates the interactions of subway riders with their workplaces, schools, households, and community activities. It was calibrated using historical data from the 1957-1958 influenza pandemics and from NYC travel surveys. The surveys were necessary to enable inclusion of subway riders into the model. The model results estimate that if influenza did occur in NYC with the characteristics of the 1957-1958 pandemic, 4% of transmissions would occur on the subway. This suggests that interventions targeted at subway riders would be relatively ineffective in containing the epidemic. A number of hypothetical examples demonstrate this feature. This information could prove useful to public health officials planning responses to epidemics.

DOI10.1007/s11524-011-9603-4
Alternate JournalJ Urban Health
PubMed ID21826584
PubMed Central IDPMC3191213
Grant List1U54GM088491-0109 / GM / NIGMS NIH HHS / United States
RTI-U01-GM070698 / GM / NIGMS NIH HHS / United States
U54 GM088491 / GM / NIGMS NIH HHS / United States
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