Incorporating individual health-protective decisions into disease transmission models: a mathematical framework.

TitleIncorporating individual health-protective decisions into disease transmission models: a mathematical framework.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2012
AuthorsDurham DP, Casman EA
JournalJ R Soc Interface
Volume9
Issue68
Pagination562-70
Date Published2012 Mar 7
ISSN1742-5662
KeywordsComputer Simulation, Decision Making, Disease Outbreaks, Health Behavior, Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice, Hong Kong, Humans, Masks, Models, Psychological, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Abstract

It is anticipated that the next generation of computational epidemic models will simulate both infectious disease transmission and dynamic human behaviour change. Individual agents within a simulation will not only infect one another, but will also have situational awareness and a decision algorithm that enables them to modify their behaviour. This paper develops such a model of behavioural response, presenting a mathematical interpretation of a well-known psychological model of individual decision making, the health belief model, suitable for incorporation within an agent-based disease-transmission model. We formalize the health belief model and demonstrate its application in modelling the prevalence of facemask use observed over the course of the 2003 Hong Kong SARS epidemic, a well-documented example of behaviour change in response to a disease outbreak.

DOI10.1098/rsif.2011.0325
Alternate JournalJ R Soc Interface
PubMed ID21775324
PubMed Central IDPMC3262418
Grant ListU54 GM088491 / GM / NIGMS NIH HHS / United States
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