Prioritization of delayed vaccination for pandemic influenza.

TitlePrioritization of delayed vaccination for pandemic influenza.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2011
AuthorsShim E
JournalMath Biosci Eng
Date Published2011 Jan
KeywordsAdolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Health Priorities, Humans, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Influenza Vaccines, Influenza, Human, Middle Aged, Models, Immunological, Models, Statistical, Pandemics, Young Adult

Limited production capacity and delays in vaccine development are major obstacles to vaccination programs that are designed to mitigate a pandemic influenza. In order to evaluate and compare the impact of various vaccination strategies during a pandemic influenza, we developed an age/risk-structured model of influenza transmission, and parameterized it with epidemiological data from the 2009 H1N1 influenza A pandemic. Our model predicts that the impact of vaccination would be considerably diminished by delays in vaccination and staggered vaccine supply. Nonetheless, prioritizing limited H1N1 vaccine to individuals with a high risk of complications, followed by school-age children, and then preschool-age children, would minimize an overall attack rate as well as hospitalizations and deaths. This vaccination scheme would maximize the benefits of vaccination by protecting the high-risk people directly, and generating indirect protection by vaccinating children who are most likely to transmit the disease.

Alternate JournalMath Biosci Eng
PubMed ID21361402
PubMed Central IDPMC3772649
Grant List5U54GM088491-02 / GM / NIGMS NIH HHS / United States
U54 GM088491 / GM / NIGMS NIH HHS / United States
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