The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: a case study of how modeling can assist all stages of vaccine decision-making.

TitleThe 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: a case study of how modeling can assist all stages of vaccine decision-making.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2011
AuthorsLee BY, Wiringa AE
JournalHum Vaccin
Volume7
Issue1
Pagination115-9
Date Published2011 Jan 1
ISSN1554-8619
KeywordsDecision Making, Humans, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Influenza Vaccines, Influenza, Human, Models, Statistical, Pandemics
Abstract

During the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic nearly every decision associated with new vaccine development and dissemination occurred from the Spring of 2009, when the novel virus first emerged, to the Fall of 2009, when the new vaccines started reaching the thighs, arms and noses of vaccinees. In many ways, 2009 served as a crash course on how mathematical and computational modeling can assist all aspects of vaccine decision-making. Modeling influenced pandemic vaccine decision-making, but not to its fullest potential. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic demonstrated that modeling can help answer questions about new vaccine development, distribution, and administration such as (1) is a vaccine needed, (2) what characteristics should the vaccine have, (3) how should the vaccine be distributed, (4) who should receive the vaccine and in what order and (5) when should vaccination be discontinued? There is no need to wait for another pandemic to enhance the role of modeling, as new vaccine candidates for a variety of infectious diseases are emerging every year. Greater communication between decision makers and modelers can expand the use of modeling in vaccine decision-making to the benefit of all vaccine stakeholders and health around the globe.

Alternate JournalHum Vaccin
PubMed ID21263227
PubMed Central IDPMC3062245
Grant List1U54GM088491-0109 / GM / NIGMS NIH HHS / United States
U54 GM088491 / GM / NIGMS NIH HHS / United States
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